Accepted or Published:

• H.D. Matthews, K.B. Tokarska, J. Rogelj, P.M. Forster, K. Haustein, C.J. Smith, A.H. MacDougall, N.  Mengis, S. Sippel, and Reto Knutti, 2021: A new framework for understanding and quantifying  uncertainties in the remaining carbon budget, Communications Earth and Environment 2, 7 doi: 10.1038/s43247-020-00064-9
• Spafford L.*, G. le Maire, A. H. MacDougall, F. de Boissieu and J.B. Féret, 2021: Spectral subdomains and  prior estimation of leaf structure improves PROSPECT inversion on reflectance or transmittance alone,  Remote Sensing of Environment, 252, 112176.
• Matthews H. D., K. B Tokarska, Z. R. J. Nicholls, J. Rogelj, J. G Canadell, P. Friedlingstein, T. L Frölicher, P. M Forster, N. P Gillett, T. Ilyina, R. B Jackson, C. D Jones, C. Koven, R. Knutti, A. H MacDougall, M. Meinshausen, N. Mengis, R. Séférian, K.Zickfeld, 2020: Opportunities and challenges in using remaining carbon budgets to guide climate policy, Nature Geoscience, 13, 769-779.
• N. Mengis, D.P. Keller, A.H. MacDougall, M. Eby, N. Wright, K.J. Meissner, A. Oschlies, A. Schmittner, H.D. Matthews, K. Zickfeld, 2020: Evaluation of the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model  version 2.10 (UVic ESCM 2.10), Geoscientific Model Development, 13, 4183–4204.
• MacDougall, A.H., T.L. Frölicher, C.D. Jones, J. Rogelj, H.D. Matthews, K. Zickfeld, V.K. Arora, N.J. Barrett*,     V. Brovkin, F.A. Burger, M. Eby, A.V. Eliseev, T. Hajima, P.B. Holden, A. Jeltsch-Thömmes, C. Koven, L.      Menviel, M. Michou, I.I. Mokhov, A. Oka, J. Schwinger, R. Séférian, G. Shaffer, A. Sokolov, K. Tachiiri, J.  Tjiputra, A. Wiltshire, T. Ziehn, 2020: Is there warming in the pipeline? A multi-model analysis of   the zero emission commitment from CO₂, Biogeosciences, 17, 2987-3016.
• Spafford L.*, A.H. MacDougall, 2020: Quantifying the probability distribution function of the Transient Climate Response to Cumulative CO₂ Emissions, Environmental Research Letters, 15, 034044,     doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab6d7b
• Jones C.D., T. L. Frölicher, C. Koven, A. H. MacDougall, H. D. Matthews, K. Zickfeld, J Rogelj, K. B. Tokarska, N. Gillett, T. Ilyina, M. Meinshausen, N. Mengis, R. Séférian, M. Eby, 2019: The Zero Emission Commitment Model Intercomparison Project (ZECMIP) contribution to CMIP6: Quantifying committed climate changes following zero carbon emissions, Geoscientific Model Development, 12, 4375-4385, doi:10.5194/gmd-12-4375-2019
• MacDougall, A.H., 2019: Limitations of the 1% experiment as the benchmark idealized experiment for carbon cycle intercomparison in C⁴MIP, Geoscientific Model Development, 12, 597–611, doi:10.5194/gmd-12-597-2019
• McGuire, AD, DM. Lawrence, C Koven, JS Clein, E Burke, G Chen, E Jafarov, AH MacDougall, S Marchenko, D Nicolsky, S Peng, A Rinke, P Ciais, Is Gouttevin, DJ Hayes, D Ji, G Krinner, JC Moore, V  Romanovsky, C Schädel, K Schaefer, EAG Schuur and Q Zhuang, 2018: Dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change, PNAS, 115, 3882–3887, doi/10.1073/pnas.1719903115
• MacDougall, A.H., 2017: The oceanic origin of path-independent carbon budgets, Scientific Reports, 7, 10373, doi:10.1038/s41598-017-10557-x.
• MacDougall, A.H., H. Beltrami, 2017: Impact of deforestation on subsurface temperature profiles: implications for the borehole paleoclimate record. Environmental Research Letters, 12, 074014.
• MacDougall, A.H., N.C. Swart, R. Knutti, 2017: The uncertainty in the transient climate response to cumulative CO₂ emissions arising from the uncertainty in physical climate parameters. Journal of Climate, 30, 813–827, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0205.1.
• MacDougall, A.H., 2016: Permafrost Carbon: Catalyst for deglaciation. Nature Geoscience (New & Views),  9, 648–649, doi:10.1038/ngeo2802
• MacDougall, A.H., R. Knutti, 2016: Enhancement of non-CO₂ radiative forcing via intensified carbon cycle feedbacks. Geophysical Res. Lett, 43, doi:10.1002/2016GL068964.
• Zickfeld, K., A.H. MacDougall, H.D. Matthews, 2016: Is there a proportional relationship between global cooling and cumulative negative CO₂ emissions? Environ. Res. Lett. 11055006
• MacDougall, A.H., R. Knutti, 2016: Projecting the release of carbon from permafrost soils using a perturbed physics ensemble. Biogeosciences, 13, 2123–2136.
• MacDougall, A.H., 2016: The Transient Response to Cumulative CO₂ emissions: A Review. Current Climate Change Reports, 2, 39–47, doi:10.1007/s40641-015-0030-6
• MacDougall, A.H., K. Zickfeld, R. Knutti, H.D. Matthews, 2015: Sensitivity of carbon budgets to permafrost carbon feedbacks, non-CO₂ forcings, and negative emissions. Environ. Res. Lett. 10 125003
• MacDougall, A. H., and P. Friedlingstein, 2015: The origin and limits of the near proportionality between  climate warming and cumulative CO₂ emissions. J. Climate, 28, 4217–4230.
• Wheler, B.A., A. H. MacDougall, G.E. Flowers, E.I. Petersen, P.H. Whitfield , and K.E. Kohfeld, 2014: Effects of temperature forcing provenance and extrapolation on the performance of an empirical glacier-melt model. Arct. Alp. Res., 46 (2), 379-393.
• MacDougall, A. H., 2013: Reversing climate warming by artificial atmospheric carbon-dioxide removal: can a Holocene-like climate be restored? Geophy. Res. Lett. 40, 5480-5485.
• MacDougall, A. H., M. Eby, and A. J. Weaver, 2013: If anthropogenic CO₂ emissions cease, will atmospheric CO₂ concentration continue to increase? J. Climate, 26, 9563-9576.
• MacDougall, A. H., C. A. Avis, and A. J. Weaver, 2012: Significant contribution to climate warming from the permafrost carbon feedback. Nature Geoscience, 5, 719-721.
• MacDougall, A. H., B. A. Wheler, and G. E. Flowers, 2011: A preliminary assessment of glacier melt model parameter sensitivity and transferability in a dry subarctic environment. The Cryosphere, 5, 1011-1028.
• MacDougall, A. H. and G. E. Flowers, 2010: Spatial and temporal transferability of a distributed energy-balance glacier melt model. J. Climate, 24, 1480-1498.
• MacDougall, A. H., H. Beltrami, J. F. Gonzalez Rouco, M. B. Stevens, and E. Bourlon, 2010: Comparison of observed and general circulation model derived continental subsurface heat flux in the northern hemisphere. J. Geophys. Res., 115, D12 109.
• MacDougall, A. H., J. F. Gonzalez Rouco, M. B. Stevens, and H. Beltrami, 2008: Quantification of subsurface heat storage in a GCM simulation. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L13 702.

Other Peer Reviewed Publications:

• Xia, J., A. D. McGuire, D. Lawrence, E. Burke, G. Chen, X. Chen, C. DeLire, C. Koven, A. MacDougall, S. Peng, A. Rinke, K. Saito, W. Zhang, R. Alkama, P. Ciais, B. Decharme, T. Bohn, I. Gouttevin, T. Hajima,    D. Hayes, D. Ji, G. Krinner, D. Lettenmaier , P. Miller, J. Moore, B. Smith, T. Sueyoshi, Z. Shi, L. Yan , J. Liang, L. Jiang, Y. Luo, K. Huang, Q. Zhang, 2017: Terrestrial ecosystem model performance in  simulating productivity and its vulnerability to climate change in the northern permafrost region, Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 122(2), 430–446.
• McGuire, A.D., C. Koven, D. M. Lawrence, J. S Clein, J. Xia, C. Beer, E. Burke, G. Chen, X. Chen, C. Delire, E. Jafarov, A. H. MacDougall, S. Marchenko, D. Nicolsky, S. Peng, A. Rinke, K. Saito, W.     Zhang, R. Alkama, T. J. Bohn, P. Ciais, B. Decharme, A. Ekici, I. Gouttevin, T. Hajima, D. J. Hayes, D. Ji, G. Krinner, D. P. Lettenmaier, Y. Luo, P. A. Miller, J. C. Moore, V. Romanovsky, C. Schädel, K. Schaefer, E.A.G. Schuur, B. Smith, T. Sueyoshi, Q. Zhuang, 2016: Variability in the sensitivity among model    simulations of permafrost and carbon dynamics in the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009, Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 30(7), 1015-1037
• Wang, W, A Rinke, JC Moore, X Cui, D Ji, Q Li, N Zhang, C Wang, S Zhang, DM Lawrence, AD McGuire, W Zhang, C Delire, C Koven, K Saito, A MacDougall, E Burke, B Decharme, 2016: Diagnostic and model dependent uncertainty of simulated Tibetan permafrost area, The Cryosphere 10 (1), 287-306.
• Peng, S, P Ciais, G Krinner, T Wang, I Gouttevin, AD McGuire, D Lawrence, E Burke, X Chen, B Decharme,C Koven, A MacDougall, A Rinke, K Saito, Wenxin Zhang, R Alkama, TJ Bohn, C Delire, T Hajima, DJi, DP Lettenmaier, PA Miller, JC Moore, Benjamin Smith, T Sueyoshi, 2016: Simulated high-latitude soil thermal dynamics during the past four decades, The Cryosphere, 10 (1), 179–192.
• Rawlins, M.A., A. D. McGuire, J. S. Kimball, P. Dass, D. Lawrence, E. Burke, X. Chen, C. Delire, C. Koven, A. MacDougall, S. Peng, A. Rinke, K. Saito, W. Zhang, R. Alkama, T. J. Bohn, P. Ciais, B. Decharme, I. Gouttevin, T. Hajima, D. Ji, G. Krinner, D. P. Lettenmaier, P. Miller, J. C. Moore, B. Smith, and T. Sueyoshi, 2015: Assessment of model estimates of land-atmosphere CO₂ exchange across Northern Eurasia, Biogeosciences, 12, 4385–4405.
• Koven, C.D., E. A. G. Schuur, C. Schädel, T. J. Bohn, E. J. Burke, G. Chen, X. Chen, P. Ciais, G. Grosse, J.W. Harden, D. Hayes, G. Hugelius, E. E. Jafarov, G. Krinner, P. Kuhry, D. M. Lawrence, A. H. MacDougall, S. S. Marchenko, A. D. McGuire, S. M. Natali, D. J. Nicolsky, D. Olefeldt, S. Peng, V. E.Romanovsky, K. M. Schaefer, J. Strauss, C. C. Treat, M. Turetsky, 2015: A simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost carbon-climate feedback, Phil. Trans. R. Soc, A 373.